Mike Trout is something special.............let's try that again. Mike Trout is on another plane of special in regards to playing baseball (I hear there is also rumors that he is curing cancer, saving children from high rise fires and volunteering at nursing homes, all while stealing 2nd base in the 1st inning). Scanning my Facebook (LOL at Facebook stock) timeline earlier I came across a post by the MLB Network where they asked if Mike Trout is the front runner for AL MVP. Now, of course, I'm a little biased (he's the MVP of the galaxy as far as I'm concerned) so I say "YES." But as I scanned some of the comments left by other users, I couldn't help but to burst out into laughter. You can read them here, go on, I'll wait.
Done? Good. Let's carry on.
Someone really had the nerve to suggest Derek Jeter, no supporting argument, just a two word post of "Derek Jeter." Astounding.
Now, I'm going to put on my unbiased cap for a moment So I can give my 100% legitimate, professional opinion on this subject. We're going to use Baseball-Reference.com for this exercise. Here is the expanded American League leader board (Jed Lawrie. Seriously?!)
We'll start with the counting stats that everyone cares about (HR, RBI, SB, etc.). Trout's not even in the conversation in regards to the long ball. He has shown good pop, but he will never be a serious HR threat, but one of his main MVP competitors is. Josh Hamilton. He's second. I give Trout a pass in the RBI category since he is a lead off man. His job is to score runs, not drive them in, but Hamilton has him almost doubled up in this category (74 for Hamilton, 38 for Trout). Stolen bases? Yeah, it's not even close Trout has a American League leading 26, Hamilton has six (they've also both been caught stealing three times. Might want to drop an anchor there Joshy). So far Ham-bone is up 2-1, but this is where it gets interesting for Trout backers.
Rate stats, always vulnerable to fluctuation. Slump, they go down. Get hot, they go up. Fascinating. Anyway, We're gonna do AVG, OBP, SLG%, OPS, and OPS+, I'm also going to list them to get through it quicker so, here we go;
- AVG. - Trout (AL Leader)
- OBP - Trout
- SLG% - Hamilton (AL Leader)
- OPS - Hamilton (AL Leader)
- OPS+ - Trout (AL Leader)
Well lookie here, Things just got a lot tighter.
Now some advanced stats. WAR, WPA, Adj. Batting Runs, Adj. Batting wins and Runs Created, same deal as last time, list ahead;
- WAR - Trout
- WPA - Trout
- Adj. Batting Runs - Hamilton (AL Leader)
- Adj. Batting Wins - Hamilton (AL Leader)
- Runs Created - Hamilton (AL Leader)
Hamilton Creates a little space here, but not a lot. The thing about WAR is that it also factors for defensive value. Mike Trout is very good at defense, Hamilton is very meh at defense. Advantage thus far, Hamilton. But barely, and Trout pulls ahead with the next two categories that I'm going to bring up.
Power-speed#, and Offensive Win%. Power-Speed# is the harmonic mean between home runs and stolen bases. Hamilton's is 9.8, Trout's, 14.4. Hamilton may have more power than Trout does, but his complete inability to swipe a bag makes Mike Trout the far superior power/speed combo type of player. Offensive Win% is what a teams winning percentage would be if the had nine of the exact same player, assuming average defense and pitching. Hamilton's, .791, very good. Mike Trout's, .797. A team of Mike Trout's would be a better team than a team of Josh Hamilton's (I really enjoyed writing that line).
It's going to come down to who maintains their level of dominance between the two, and if it's still neck and neck, the player on the division winning team will most likely take home the crown. And even if Trout doesn't win the MVP (I'm not getting my hopes up that we catch Texas), rumor has it they are already engraving his name into the Rookie of the Year trophy. So there is always that.
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